The U.S. and European intelligence services were alarming the world about Russia’s preparations for the war against Ukraine since November 2021. Nevertheless, due to its scale and resulting atrocities, and the consequences it produces, Russia’s war against Ukraine resembles a “black swan” event.
Following the failure of Russia’s initial ‘blitzkrieg’ plan, Ukraine continues resisting, more united as ever. The West responded to the invasion by unprecedented, coordinated sanctions, including the sanctions against Russia’s Central Bank and against hundreds of Putin’s regime’s allies. Numerous private companies suspended their operation on or left Russia’s market. Facing the economic consequences of sanctions and severe international isolation, the Kremlin uses monstrous propaganda, passes laws to conquer public discontent and continues the war. It also engages into a massive stand-off with the West, including nuclear threats. China expresses its support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity but seems not to use its influence over Kremlin to stop the aggression. Amid the hostilities, Ukraine gets EU Candidate status and proceeds towards accession negotiations that formally started on 25 June 2024. The EU also takes steps to reduce its energy dependence on Russia and strengthen defense capabilities. Peace talks with Russia are on hold, and ever less actors at the West believe Russia would abide by the conditions of any peace deal.
We have been following these developments closely over almost 2.5 years that the war has been lasting and recommend to your attention an array of project-related media pieces and blog posts:
Tymczyk, A., Rabinovych, M. (2023, 5 December). En manglende forståelse av Ukrainas reformarbeid [The lacking understanding of Ukraine’s reform work]. Vårt Land.
The media piece stresses the role of Ukraine’s decentralization reform in the country’s wartime resilience.
Rabinovych, M., Pintsch, A. (2023, 23 February). Europa må støtte en rask seier for Ukraina [Europe must support a quick victory for Ukraine). Aftenposten
Published in Aftenposten on the eve of the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the media piece reaffirms the benefits Ukraine’s quick victory over Russia would have brought to the West.
Pintsch, A., Rabinovych, M. (2023, 20 February) Geopolitical and Technocratic: EU International Actorness and Russia’s War against Ukraine. Foundation Robert Schuman.
Dedicated to the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the policy brief suggests the EU should be strategic in using its technocratic reform promotion experience to obtain its geopolitical goals.
Rabinovych, M., Egert, O. (2022, 25 August) Why Does Ukraine not Adjust to EU Transport Rules? The JCMS IDEAS Blog
The contribution explores complex array of factors behind Ukraine’s compliance challenges in the transport and infrastructure domain, stressing the ambitiousness of “homework” Ukraine has to implement to move forward in terms of potential enlargement negotiations with the EU.
Rabinovych, M. (2022, 18 July) Learning the Lessons from the Minsk Peace Process: Why Can Fragile Peace Be Dangerous? Peace News Network
The contribution explains the challenges of the Minsk I and Minsk II Agreements, which were aimed at resolving the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, and warns against fragile peace that may result from hybrid politico-legal peace agreements in light of the current war and prospective peace talks with Russia.
Rabinovych, M. (2022, 9 June) War and revolution in Ukraine: a European story. UiA Democracy in Action Blog
The blog post narrates the story of Ukraine’s recent history through the prism of mass mobilization and war.
Rabinovych, M. (2022, 23 March) The Russia-Ukraine war: A watershed moment for EU foreign policy? LSE EUROPP Blog.
The war does not only dramatically challenge Ukraine and Russia. It also presents a ‘watershed moment’ for the EU as a foreign policy actor, as the EU does not only impose unprecedented sanctions over Russia but uses the European Peace Facility to supply weapons to Ukraine, offers a generous collective protection scheme for refugees and starts the consideration of Ukraine’s EU membership application.
Rabinovych, M. (2022, 17 March) Ukraina vil bli EU-medlem midt under krigen med Russland. Fædrelandsvennen.
The piece traces back the history of the EU-Ukraine relations and assesses the chances for Ukraine to become a Candidate country while at war.
The full text of the chronicle is available at the UiA website.
Tymczuk., A., Sverdljuk, J., Rabinovych, M., Ryndyk, O. (2022, 15 March) Ukraina i den akademiske blindsonen. Khrono.
The contribution argues for the importance of developing Ukrainian Studies in Norway beyond the current “Russia and Ukraine” track, rooted in the Norwegian academic tradition. This is particularly important amid the global trend to decolonize academia.
Rabinovych, M. (2022, 2 March) Det kan vi lære av Russlands krig mot Ukraina. Fædrelandsvennen.
Combining professional and personal perspectives, “Lowering the Bar” project post-doc Maryna Rabinovych writes about the surrealism of the war for Russian-speaking Ukrainians in Southeast of Ukraine, experiencing strongest Russia’s attacks, and discusses why autocracies threaten peace worldwide. The piece suggests several steps for the West to strengthen its stance towards autocracies and counter propaganda they produce.
The open-access version is available at the University of Agder website.
Eide, O., Moseid, P. (2022, 25 February) Vi overgir oss aldri. Fædrelandsvennen.
Director of Security Programmes at the “Lowering the Bar” partner organization Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” Dr. Anna Shelest, project leader Dr. Anne Pintsch and Dr. Maryna Rabinovych in talk with journalists from Fæderlandsvennen to discuss the reasons for the war, Ukraine’s positions and assistance expected from the international community.
Burkhardt, F., Wittke, C., Rabinovych, M., & Bescotti, E. (2022, 17 February). What Makes a Citizen? Russia’s Passportization of the Donbas. Russian Analytical Digest, 277, 2-4.
Written several days before the war’s start, the piece explains Russia’s policy of passportization at the occupied territories in Eastern Ukraine and the way Russia used this policy to justify its aggressive moves in Eastern Ukraine.
Rabinovych, M. (2022, 13 February) How Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU has helped increase the country’s resilience to Russian pressure? LSE EUROPP Blog.
Also written before the war, the blog entry discusses the role of the EU in transforming Ukraine since Russia’s annexation of Crimea and attack on Eastern Ukraine in 2014 and improving its resilience to current aggression.